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Is it skill or is it luck? Find out.
Deep Stats puts every settled pick through calibration checks, Monte Carlo risk simulations and the filters you need to decide which picks are worth following with your own money.
- Calibration: claimed vs realised win rate
- Monte Carlo drawdown and ruin odds
- Filter by sport, confidence and model
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Is the AI skilled or just lucky? Calibration and risk analysis
Deep Stats runs ProphetAI's full settled record through the checks a sceptical bettor should ask for: does the stated confidence match the real win rate, how bad can a losing run get, and which sports and models are actually earning their keep.
Calibration: claimed versus realised win rate
Picks are grouped by the confidence the machine gave them and compared with how often they won. A well-calibrated model wins about 70% of the time when it says 70%; a gap either way is information.
Drawdown and Monte Carlo risk
Thousands of random scenarios built from the settled record show the range of outcomes you could have lived through, including the worst drawdown and the chance of a deep losing run, not just the average.
Filter by sport, confidence and model
Slice the record by sport, confidence band and the model that made the pick, so you can see where the results come from before deciding which picks to follow with your own money.
How it works
- Step 1Pick the slice of the record to examine
- Step 2Check calibration against realised results
- Step 3Read the drawdown and Monte Carlo ranges
- Step 4Decide which picks, if any, are worth following
Questions
- What does a calibration chart show?
- How often picks at each stated confidence level actually won. Points on the diagonal mean the confidence figures can be trusted.
- Are the figures based on real money?
- No. ProphetAI results use a virtual bankroll with prices recorded when each pick was posted. They show how the picks performed, not what any one person earned.
See the evidence first: the public track record, the daily diary and the plans. Results use a virtual bankroll and are not betting advice. 18+ only.