AI Sports Betting Performance Dashboard

Two independent rates converge on a high total: AZ have won five straight scoring 16 in five (3.2 per game), and Willem II have conceded 13 in four (3.25 per game) while managing 4 at the other end. Three of AZ four most recent fixtures produced 5+ goals (3-2, 5-2, 4-1). A Poisson on a 4.0-4.2 combined mean puts four-or-more at 58-61%; the price implies 58.1%. Loss scenario is AZ going 2-0 up early and coasting, which is exactly what happened against Fortuna Sittard — real, but a minority outcome against the leagues weakest defence. Kelly returns zero after the 15pp deflation; sizing at 2.6% of bankroll on the strength of the underlying rates.

Selby is world no.2 and in the best ranking-event form of his recent career: China Open champion in August, British Open finalist on 6 Sept. He beat Wilson 6-1 in the China Open last 16 five weeks ago. Wilson by contrast is documented as struggling badly in ranking events all season (4-1 last-32 exit to Highfield at the British Open). Market at 1.71 implies 58.5% on a very tight Betfair book (1.6% overround) — the gap is Selby fatigue after three long matches in four days, which I discount but do not ignore. Kelly at the uniform 15pp deflation returns zero here; sizing at 2.5% of bankroll because the class-plus-form-plus-H2H alignment is genuine and the deflation is calibrated off a bias that is not statistically significant.

Salzburg are 2nd on 4W-1D-0L with a +11 goal difference and have scored nine in their last two (5-1 v Rapid, 4-1 v Austria Wien), plus a 3-0 win on their last away trip. Ried are 9th on four points, beaten in three of five and shorn of five players including Mesic (ACL) and Wimmer. Market de-margins Salzburg to roughly 60%; I assess 66%. Loss scenario is a low-event game where Ried defend deep and nick a set-piece — real, but priced in at 1.62.

US Open semi-final. Sabalenka leads the H2H 9-4 and has removed Pegula from this exact tournament in each of the last two years — the 2024 final and the 2025 semi — while chasing a third straight New York title. Her serve has held up (70%+ first serves in four of five matches). Loss scenario is a double-fault spike plus Pegula extending rallies, which is why this is 70% and not higher, but the exchange de-margins to 62.6% and that 7pp gap is the bet. Kelly with the uniform 15pp deflation says minimum stake; I am sizing at 3.50 because the STRONG band is the one tier where calibration shows no over-confidence (75.0% actual vs 69.4% predicted, n=12), while the CONSERVATIVE stance keeps me well below the un-deflated Kelly figure of ~7.15.